Nasdaq has filed a proposal with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to list binary options tied to the Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq 100 Micro Index, signaling a major step by a traditional exchange into the rapidly expanding prediction style trading market.
Under the proposal, traders would be able to place yes or no bets on the direction of the Nasdaq 100, one of the most closely followed equity benchmarks in the world. The contracts would be priced between 1 cent and 1 dollar, reflecting the market’s implied probability that a specific outcome will occur. If the stated condition is met, the contract pays a fixed amount. If not, it expires worthless.
Binary options are structured around two possible outcomes, making them similar in mechanics to event contracts offered by prediction market platforms. If approved, Nasdaq’s products would allow market participants to take short term directional positions on index movements using a simplified payout structure.
The move follows a similar push by Cboe, which has also announced plans to expand into prediction oriented derivatives. The growing interest in event based markets has accelerated across both traditional finance and digital asset platforms, particularly as retail and institutional traders seek new tools to hedge risk or express macro views.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have seen increased activity in contracts tied to elections, economic indicators, and policy decisions. Those markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission because they are classified as event contracts linked to real world outcomes. By contrast, binary options tied to securities indexes fall under the oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Nasdaq’s filing highlights how established exchanges are adapting the prediction style format within existing securities and derivatives regulations. By anchoring the contracts to the Nasdaq 100 and its micro version, the exchange is positioning binary options within a familiar and liquid benchmark that already underpins futures, options, and exchange traded products.
Crypto exchanges are also moving into the space. Coinbase has introduced prediction market style contracts on its platform, while Gemini received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate as a Designated Contract Market, enabling it to offer regulated event based derivatives to United States customers.
The broader surge in prediction markets reflects shifting trader behavior, where probability driven instruments are increasingly used to interpret economic signals and short term volatility. Nasdaq’s proposal represents a formal integration of that structure into the core of Wall Street index trading infrastructure.
